Construction Expenditure Forecast

Frequently Asked Questions:

1. What is the classification of the forecasts?
2. What kind of construction works is included in the above classification?
3. What are the exclusions in the forecasts?
4. What are the limitations and factors to be considered?
5. Why are the forecasts presented in “Mid-term” and “Long-term” forecasts?
6. Why are the forecasts presented in an envelope and what are the criteria of setting the upper bound and lower bound envelope?
7. Why is the information presented in constant price (e.g. Sep 2012 price level) not using the Money-of-the-Day (MOD) approach?
8. How has the historical data been used to forecast the future figures?
9. How often will the forecasts be released, updated or reviewed?
10. Has the construction expenditure of other regional cities (e.g. Macao) been included in the model?

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About Classification:

1. What is the classification of the forecasts?

   The forecasts are divided into two types of construction works, i.e. “Public Sector” and “Private Sector”. The detailed classifications are summarized as follows:

   Public Sector:

   1. Building Works
   2. Civil Engineering Works
   3. Repair, Maintenance, Alteration and Additional (RMAA) Works
   4. Electrical and Mechanical (E&M) Works

    

   Private Sector:

   1. Building Works
   2. Repair, Maintenance, Alteration and Additional (RMAA) Works
   3. Electrical and Mechanical (E&M) Works

    

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2. What kind of construction works is included in the above classification?

   Public Sector:

   1. Building Works – It mainly covers all capital building projects funded by the Government, including works under Architectural Services Department (ArchSD) and Housing Authority and sub-vented projects such as school / hospital projects etc.;
   2. Civil Engineering Works – It mainly covers all capital civil engineering / major infrastructure works under various works departments such as Civil Engineering and Development Department (CEDD), Drainage Services Department (DSD), Environment Protection Department (EPD), Highways Department (HyD), Water Services Department (WSD) etc. and other infrastructure works under Airport Authority and Mass Transit Railway Corporation (MTRC);
   3. Repair, Maintenance, Alteration and Additional (RMAA) Works – RMAA works mainly cover the routine maintenance, term contracts, minor works and improvement works funded by the Government; and
   4. Electrical and Mechanical (E&M) Works – E&M works are proportionally and separately listed. The direct E&M works under Electrical and Mechanical Services Department are also included.

    

   Private Sector:

   1. Building Works – It mainly covers all private construction works including commercial and residential buildings, shopping centres, industrial factories, hotel developments, and residential developments under Urban Renewal Authority, MTRC, Housing Society and building activities under utility companies etc;
   2. Repair, Maintenance, Alteration and Additional (RMAA) Works – It mainly covers all renovation works, fitting-out works and miscellaneous building maintenance works funded by private developers, private companies and incorporated owners. RMAA works under the Operation Building Bright Scheme, Mandatory Building Inspection Scheme and Mandatory Window Inspection Scheme, etc. are also included; and
   3. Electrical and Mechanical (E&M) Works – Similar to public works, E&M works are proportionally and separately listed. Basically, it covers electrical and mechanical fitting works and repair and maintenance of E&M works for private sector.

    

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3. What are the exclusions in the forecasts?

   In general, pre-construction feasibility study and design fee, project planning & management fee and supervision fees are not included.

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About Methodologies and Assumptions:

4. What are the limitations and factors to be considered?

   It would be quite difficult to provide a long-term forecast which will be affected by many factors. Externally, the forecasts will be affected by change in economic climates, government policy changes etc. Internally, construction work progress will be affected by many factors, such as statutory procedures, technical reasons, inclement weather etc. With these factors taken into consideration, we consider that it is more appropriate to provide a range for the construction expenditure forecasts for industry’s reference.

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5. Why are the forecasts presented in “Mid-term” and “Long-term” forecasts?

   The first 5 year forecast is based on the mid-range forecast of the Government and those readily available information, such as past records obtained from the Government (e.g. number of approvals of submissions, consents of work commences, etc.) and sources from property consultants and land sale records etc.

   For the second 5 years, the forecasts for public and private sectors are not separately listed. Regarding the Private sector, it is reasonable to assume that the private workloads would grow with the Hong Kong economy and the construction output was tied in with the GDP growth according to the latest economic outlook. In the long run, as the projections depend on many unforeseeable events, hence it is recommended to combine the information for public and private sectors.

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6. Why are the forecasts presented in an envelope and what are the criteria of setting the upper bound and lower bound envelope?

   As the forecasts will depend on many factors, such as new Government initiatives, change of economic climates, interference of work programmes due to various reasons, etc., to better illustrate our projections, the construction expenditure forecast is presented in an envelope.

   As the accuracy of forecasts in the long run will depend on even more unpredictable events, the forecasts of the second 5 years for public and private sectors is grouped together for industry’s reference.

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7. Why is the information presented in constant price (e.g. Sep 2012 price level) not using the Money-of-the-Day (MOD) approach?

   For easy comparison, all forecasts are presented in constant prices. Since it is not easy to project the inflation change in economy the coming years, hence, no inflation is provisioned within the forecasts. Stakeholders may make their own assumptions on inflation rates.

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8. How has the historical data been used to forecast the future figures?

   Reference has been made to past records obtained from the Government Departments (e.g. Census and Statistics Department, Buildings Department etc) and the historical data obtained from professional consultants etc.

   It is understood that those past data could be used as a reference only, it does not necessarily mean that there exists a relationship between the past data and the future projection. In this connection, this projection would be subject to periodic reviews.

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9. How often will the forecasts be released, updated or reviewed?

   The forecasts will be released on a yearly basis, or as otherwise deemed necessary.

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Others:

10. Has the construction expenditure of other regional cities (e.g. Macao) been included in the model?

    The projection of construction expenditure of other regional cities has not been included as it is outside CIC's jurisdiction.

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